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The Olivier Job Index provides a timely and fascinating monthly snapshot of the real economy. The research into what jobs are advertised on the net shows where the economy is strongest, by sector and state. An increasing number of commentators and economists rely on the Olivier Job Index as an indicator of where the economy is going. The RBA regularly uses Olivier's research, for example. Internet Job Ads have replaced Newspaper Ads as a measure of the real economy. John Edwards is quoted in this Shortlist article for example. The very detailed analysis for major industry sectors is to be found on the Olivier site, along with archived material. Robert Olivier is frequently interviewed by the media. Here he is on Sky News. Worst Ever Job Ads Plunge For New Year. Sydney, Sunday February 8, 2009. The Olivier Job Index plummeted 12.64% in January, the biggest fall recorded in 8 years of data. There are now just two thirds of the job ads there were at this time last year, with 35.26% fewer jobs advertised, nationally. The nose dive in opportunities for Australian workers comes with last week's Treasury predictions that jobs growth will slow and stop and unemployment may reach 7%. Given our figures, employers will welcome the rate cut and government's stimulus package. January is the low point of the employment year, and traditionally negative and volatile. However all sectors fell in as 2009 began, with white collar employment hit hardest. Financial Services dropped most with 20.82% fewer jobs in the month. Human Resources fell 20.09%, reflecting the dire state of the employment market. Advertising and Media dropped 18.31%, Legal is down 18.13%, and Accounting jobs fell 16.78%. Least effected was Trades and Services which fell just 0.83% in the month and Healthcare which dropped just 1.75%. Both are the only single digit declines last month. "It's OK still for doctors, nurses and plumbers – when you need them, you've got to have them," says Robert Olivier. While the Olivier data looks at the demand side of employment, organisations are still pruning jobs. "It's like a bath tub with the tap on and the plug out. How fast is the water level falling? There may not be enough new jobs coming in to make up for the ones being lost. We'll watch the ABS jobs figures with interest. But so far many of the people who are not working may not be showing up as statistics." The trend towards part time jobs, noted in December and confirmed by the ABS figures, continues. Part time jobs dropped just 1.0% in the month, compared to full time falling 13.4%. Contract jobs were down 10.8%. The rapid tarnishing of the formerly bright resource rich states continues. Western Australia lost 17.10% of job ads last month. The most significant contributor to that loss was Engineering jobs, down 24.54%, showing just how hard the mining bust has hit the western state. In Queensland jobs fell 14.04%, but with a broader base to the decline. While engineering jobs were down 15.17% Queensland was hit hard in the white collar sectors of HR (- 26.60%) Financial Services (-25.25%) Accounting (- 17.42%,) and Advertising and Media (-17.55%). IT&T fell 16.78% in the month nationally, and with the only bright spot a decline of just 6.83% in the ACT. “A permanent job in Canberra may be welcome sanctuary for IT&T people,” says Robert Olivier. "We always see a trough from the first week of December through to February, as our graph clearly shows. That's even with the ABS Seasonal Adjustment. This year's figures show a steeper fall. Our analysis of the weekly data shows far less bounce in January than last year," says Robert Olivier. The Reserve Bank acknowledged 'contractionary forces coming from abroad' and noted significant dampening effect on confidence, and therefore on prospects for growth in demand. As the RBA acknowledges, the root cause of an economic slow down in Australia is lack of confidence. "There are still 200,000 job ads on the major Australian employment sites, so organisations are still hiring," says Robert Olivier from the Olivier Group."There is still choice. Candidates shouldn't get dragged down by the gloom." There are more people applying for jobs. "Applicant numbers are up and the calibre is extremely good," says Robert Olivier. Not all are being laid off. "Some may have had contracts come to an end at the end of the year or maybe they're looking for recession proof jobs." "This flow of talent is better than any employer will have experienced over the past five years. Still it may be a mistake to wait too long in the hope that even better quality candidates will come along." "In the current market employers may not increase their teams but this is a great chance to strengthen them," Robert says. Robert Olivier is a Director of Olivier Group. The Olivier Job Index surveyed 197,439 Positions Vacant ads on commercial job sites in January and analysed them by state and industry sector. Robert Olivier is available for interview, and the microeconomic data including graphs of the industry sectors surveyed in the Olivier Job Index will be available on Monday February 9 on www.olivier.com.au Unless otherwise noted, all OJI figures quoted are seasonally adjusted, based on ABS advice. Released by Corporate Communications and Counsel. www.corpcoms.com Contact Bob Hughes 0407 901 587 or Katherine Scott 0415 764 159. Olivier Group, Level 9, 28 Margaret St, Sydney 2000. 9262 5344 Historical Releases: December 2008 Release November 2008 Release October 2008 Release September 2008 Release August 2008 Release July 2008 Release June 2008 Release May 2008 Release April 2008 Release March 2008 Release February 2008 Release January 2008 Release December 2007 Release November 2007 Release October 2007 Release September 2007 Release August 2007 Release July 2007 Release June 2007 Release April 2007 Release March 2007 Release February 2007 Release January 2007 Release December 2006 Release November 2006 Release October 2006 Release September 2006 Release August 2006 Release |