WE HELP YOU LOOK AND SOUND BETTER
Home
Who We Are
What We Do
What People Say
In the News
Recent Releases
Olivier
Inspiritive
Podcasts
Corporate Podcasts
Podcast Classes
NetCastNow & NetCastFast!
Images & Branding
Corporate pages
Student pages
ZENLP
Contact Us
|
The Olivier Job Index provides a timely and fascinating monthly snapshot of the real economy. The research into what jobs are advertised on the net shows where the economy is strongest, by sector and state. An increasing number of commentators and economists rely on the Olivier Job Index as an indicator of where the economy is going. The RBA regularly uses Olivier's research, for example. Internet Job Ads have replaced Newspaper Ads as a measure of the real economy. John Edwards is quoted in this Shortlist article for example. The very detailed analysis for major industry sectors is to be found on the Olivier site, along with archived material. Robert Olivier is frequently interviewed by the media. Here he is on Sky News. Job Ads Steady for Soft Landing? Sydney, Sunday April 6, 2008. The Olivier Job Index flattened in March, gaining just 0.72% seasonally adjusted. This follows the plummet in employer demand of 5.90% in February, the first drop in the index in three years. "Is this is a soft landing for the jobs economy? It's too early to predict," says Robert Olivier, Director of the Olivier Group. "We saw the effect of the two interest rate rises in a row on last month's figures. On this month's data the RBA was right not to increase rates yet again last week." Over the 12 months to March the Olivier Job Index has grown 32.38%. This is a far cry from the yearly growth rates of more than 50% last year. "Is this a stable plateau for the employment market, or just a pause on the way down into a much slower economy? That's the question that business and government needs to answer. "Given the news that hiring intentions have fallen, the downside risk is greater. Our survey shows that employers are prefering to offer temporary not permanent jobs, indicating their uncertainty." The continuing bad news from global markets is plaguing job prospects in that beleaguered banking and finance sector. As UBS and Lehman Brothers tell their bad news, local firms are also being hammered. Finance is the poorest performing sector over 12 months, with an increase of just 6.72%. Finance and Bankers job ads fell 3.78% in March, and have dropped 10.04% in the past 3 months. The most significant falls were in Corporate Finance and Investment Banking down 8.7% in the month, and the Retail Banking and Mortgage jobs which has fallen 15.5% in the month. Insurance and Superannuation is the only sub-sector to have grown in the past month. Building and Construction and the Trades and Services sectors are both relatively strong on the back of the resources boom. Trades and Services was up 5.87% in March and 52.99% in 12 months while Building and Construction rose 3.29% in the month and 52.77% over the year. The resources boom is underpinning those sectors with Building and Construction up 7.82% in Qld in the month and Trades and Services up 8.40% in WA. Signs for the broader economy in the bellwether Media and Retail sectors weren't good, reinforcing recent reported drops in consumer confidence. Media and Advertising jobs fell 4.37% in the month, reflecting widespread reports that ad revenue is softening. And falling consumer confidence has hit Sales Marketing and Retail which was down 1.29% in the month and 4.25% over 3 months. IT & T isn't faring too well with growth of just 0.19% in March and 11.24% in the year. Further delays in the federal government's broadband scheme won't help the hardware suppliers either. "The key software development sector is down 6.5%, perhaps because of cut backs from banks and government", Robert Olivier says. "And that has a flow on effect." However while there's plenty of anxiety around and job ads have dipped, Robert Olivier makes the point that unemployment remains very low at least in the short term. "We're still at historically high levels of job ads, and there is still a skills shortage in many sectors," Robert Olivier says. Our survey of job ads is a lead indicator for the employment rate so it will take some time for these results to flow through to the ABS figures." On the positive side, falling superannuation growth and rising interest rates will mean more older people will be working longer and that may help pull back inflation by relieving wage pressures. "The greater participation rate could also help with the skills shortage," Robert Olivier said. Robert Olivier is a Director of Olivier Group. The Olivier Job Index surveyed 400,893 Positions Vacant ads on commercial job sites in March and analysed them by state and industry sector. Robert Olivier is available for interview, and the microeconomic data including graphs of the industry sectors surveyed in the Olivier Job Index will be available on Monday April 7 on www.olivier.com.au Unless otherwise noted, all IJI figures quoted are seasonally adjusted, based on ABS advice. Released by Corporate Communications and Counsel. www.corpcoms.com Contact Bob Hughes 0407 901 587 or Katherine Scott 0415 764 159. Olivier Group, Level 9, 28 Margaret St, Sydney 2000. 9262 5344 Historical Releases: March 2008 Release February 2008 Release January 2008 Release December 2007 Release November 2007 Release October 2007 Release September 2007 Release August 2007 Release July 2007 Release June 2007 Release April 2007 Release March 2007 Release February 2007 Release January 2007 Release December 2006 Release November 2006 Release October 2006 Release September 2006 Release August 2006 Release |