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The Olivier Internet Job Index provides a timely and fascinating monthly snapshot of the real economy. The research into what jobs are advertised on the net shows where the economy is strongest, by sector and state. An increasing number of commentators and economists are giving weight to internet stats and abandoning the newspaper ads as an employment indicator. John Edwards is quoted in this Shortlist article for example. The very detailed full analysis is to be found on the Olivier site, along with archived material. Robert Olivier is frequently interviewed by the media. Here he is on Sky News. Jobs Economy Robust Despite Triple Threat. Sydney, Sunday August 5, 2007. The Australian job market grew strongly again in July and should continue to be robust despite the triple threat of an interest rate rise, wobbly global share markets and a high Australian dollar. The Olivier Internet Job Index rose 2.98% in July, reaching another record of 344,820 jobs counted in the month. Over the past 12 months, job ads on the major Australian sites have risen 46.58%. “That’s a remarkable rate of growth for any industry or economy,” comments Robert Olivier. With business confidence at a 12 year high, according to the NAB, it’s unlikely that an interest rate rise will dampen the job market for long, he says. “In our experience, over the past 8 interest rate rises, even after 2 successive increases, employers may pause for a month, but then they start hiring again. “The US economy may be a little jittery, but China remains strong, and the worst of the drought seems over,” says Robert Olivier, “Recruitment is all about positive prospects, and confidence is contagious.” The week by week analysis showed growth continuing through July. “3% monthly growth in job ads seems to be about the norm,” Robert Olivier commented. Three sectors have more than doubled in the last year. Arts and Entertainment has soared by 170.38%, Multimedia Internet and Graphics is up 104.44%, and Education has risen 101.92%. While Arts and Multimedia are both relatively small sectors there were 8,977 job ads in Education each week. Much of 12 month increase in the sector is in Early Childhood education positions. “This may be a result of the government rebates, and reflects more young mothers going back to work,” Robert Olivier says. Lack of early childhood education staff, and the consequent lack of childcare places may even be an impediment to the participation rate. Legal jobs are up 14.50% in the month. “That’s a major surge, which was mostly in NSW, and the month alone is almost a third of the yearly growth of 50.22%.” Administration Clerical and Office Work jobs are up 9.04% indicating the general strength of the business environment. “It’s as tight in white collar clerical as it is in white collar professional. It’s very hard to find a receptionist or PA right now.” Robert Olivier says. IT&T jobs grew just 0.34% in the month, but remain healthy over 12 months with growth of 41.91%. After a lot of growth in previous years, Human Resources and Recruitment is one of the slower sectors with negative growth in the month of 0.77% and over 12 months an increase of just 25.55%. The big Trades and Services sector is lagging with 0.80% less job ads in July and an increase of just 30.93% in 12 months. Building and Construction jobs bumped along in July with a fall of 0.34%, but remain strong over the year with 91.89% growth. Hospitality Tourism and Travel may be feeling the effect of the strong dollar with a decrease of just 0.60% in the month (but a 48.69% increase year on year). Robert Olivier is a Director of Olivier Group. The Olivier Internet Job Index surveyed 344,820 Positions Vacant ads on commercial job sites in July and analysed them by state and industry sector. Robert Olivier is available for interview, and the microeconomic data including graphs of the industry sectors surveyed in the Olivier Internet Job Index will be available on Monday August 6 on www.olivier.com.au Unless otherwise noted, all IJI figures quoted are seasonally adjusted, based on ABS advice. Released by Corporate Communications and Counsel. www.corpcoms.com Contact Bob Hughes 0407 901 587 or Katherine Scott 0415 764 159. Olivier Group, Level 9, 28 Margaret St, Sydney 2000. 9262 5344 Historical Releases: July 2007 Release June 2007 Release April 2007 Release March 2007 Release February 2007 Release January 2007 Release December 2006 Release November 2006 Release October 2006 Release September 2006 Release August 2006 Release |