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The Olivier Internet Job Index provides a timely and fascinating monthly snapshot of the real economy. The research into what jobs are advertised on the net shows where the economy is strongest, by sector and state. An increasing number of commentators and economists are giving weight to internet stats and abandoning the newspaper ads as an employment indicator. John Edwards is quoted in this Shortlist article for example. The very detailed full analysis is to be found on the Olivier site, along with archived material. Robert Olivier is frequently interviewed by the media. Here he is on Sky News. Job Market Flattens Sydney, Sunday December 9, 2007. The Olivier Internet Job Index flattened in November with 13 out of the 21 industry sectors surveyed falling. The IJI recorded a marginal increase of just 0.46% (seasonally adjusted) of Australian job ads on the internet. This is the smallest increase in the IJI since August 2006. “Our analysis shows that the easing of demand for workers was early in the month, which suggests that the interest rate increase was a factor,” says Robert Olivier, Director of the Olivier Group. “Corporate Australia may be wondering how deep the credit crunch will go, especially with banks raising interest rates on their own initiative. The market has softened, although historically job demand is volatile at this time of the year.” The election wasn't a factor in employer confidence last month. “We saw an increase in job ads in the last week of the month just when the people went to the polls. But you'd forgive employers for some nervousness now the reality of a new government is here,” Robert Olivier says. “Employers factored in a change of government but now business is asking what the new government will change,” he says. “WorkChoices will go, what exactly will replace it?” Informed opinion says that the Australian economy may be overheated and many commentators speculate that the new federal government will face a recession. “As a lead indicator the Olivier Internet Job Index will provide early warning of a flattening economy”, says Robert Olivier.”Or in the short term it may continue to provide evidence of demand pushing up wages and inflation.” The interest rate increases have already had an effect on the Building and Construction sector. The Olivier Internet Job Index tracked November job ads down by 6.26% in that sector, with notable falls in Victoria and South Australia. This follows news that building approvals over the 12 months to October were below the expected underlying demand. Sales and Marketing jobs dropped 3.44% in the month echoing weaker retail trade figures in October. “This may be a signal of falling consumer and business confidence heading into Christmas,” Robert Olivier says. The Hospitality, Tourism and Travel sector fell 2.11%, probably reflecting the strong Australian dollar. Arts and Entertainment has enjoyed the most growth in job ads in the past month, up 11.54%. Over the past 12 months, with an increase of 129.29%, they're up almost three times the national average. Next highest growth was Trades and Services 5.06% in the month, then Recruitment and HR up 4.98% and Banking Services which grew 2.76% IT is holding up well with a 3.82% increase in the month, growing in all states, except Victoria. The Multimedia, Internet and Graphics sector grew 5.10% in the month. Job ads in most states fell in November although Western Australia continues to prosper with an increase of 4.6% in the month, principally driven by Trades and Services jobs. NSW outperformed the national index increasing by 1.14% while Victoria fell by 1.77%. Graduate numbers were up 4.76% in the month, reflecting the end of the university year. Olivier saw a 49% increase in graduate opportunities compared to this time last year. “Perhaps because there's so few of them left,” Robert Olivier says.”Anyone looking now would find slim pickings.” Robert Olivier is a Director of Olivier Group. The Olivier Internet Job Index surveyed 375,303 Positions Vacant ads on commercial job sites in November and analysed them by state and industry sector. Robert Olivier is available for interview, and the microeconomic data including graphs of the industry sectors surveyed in the Olivier Internet Job Index will be available on Monday December 10 on www.olivier.com.au Unless otherwise noted, all IJI figures quoted are seasonally adjusted, based on ABS advice. Released by Corporate Communications and Counsel. www.corpcoms.com Contact Bob Hughes 0407 901 587 or Katherine Scott 0415 764 159. Olivier Group, Level 9, 28 Margaret St, Sydney 2000. 9262 5344 Historical Releases: November 2007 Release October 2007 Release September 2007 Release August 2007 Release July 2007 Release June 2007 Release April 2007 Release March 2007 Release February 2007 Release January 2007 Release December 2006 Release November 2006 Release October 2006 Release September 2006 Release August 2006 Release |