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The Olivier Job Index provides a timely and fascinating monthly snapshot of the real economy. The research into what jobs are advertised on the net shows where the economy is strongest, by sector and state. An increasing number of commentators and economists rely on the Olivier Job Index as an indicator of where the economy is going. The RBA regularly uses Olivier's research, for example. Internet Job Ads have replaced Newspaper Ads as a measure of the real economy. John Edwards is quoted in this Shortlist article for example. The very detailed analysis for major industry sectors is to be found on the Olivier site, along with archived material. Robert Olivier is frequently interviewed by the media. Here he is on Sky News. Job Ads Down, Jobs Stress Up. Sydney, Sunday December 7, 2008. The Olivier Job Index fell 9.83% in November, and is down 16.03% on this time last year. In raw terms there were 48,000 fewer employment opportunities advertised per week on the three major Australian job boards than in October. The stress on managers to cut, and employees’ fear of being fired, is widespread. All industry sectors are down, but hardest hit is Advertising and Media where job ads fell 25.78% in the month. Administration and Clerical jobs fell 21.14% in the month. "Companies are cutting staff that isn't client facing or revenue raising," Robert Olivier, Director of the Olivier Group, says. Engineering, the sector with the most growth in the past year (25.70%), has been the last to fall into decline with job ads dropping 2.98% in the month, The other safest sectors over the past 12 months have been Healthcare (+ 0.38%), and Education (+6.72%). This is the 5th successive monthly fall in the Olivier Job Index. Last month it was down 4.42% and it fell 1.17% in September. In that time the RBA has reduced official interest rates by 2%. So will last week’s reduction by 1% make a difference? "We won’t really be able to judge until February. Employers traditionally return to the market near the end of January with fresh budgets and new year resolutions," says Robert Olivier. "We anticipate that job seekers will be back early." While many companies are not hiring, and some are laying staff off, he warns that short term cuts to staff may have bad long term effects. "But when business bounces back, how do you recapture the talent you need? If you’re not going to increase your team, you might think about how you can consolidate your strengths. The interest rate cuts, lower mortgages, and the lower cost of fuel could turn consumer sentiment around." Of course in any down turn there are winners too. "Financial capital is a lot cheaper, and there is less competition for human capital. If you can create jobs, there’s a rich talent pool available." Victorian positions vacant were down 10.00% while NSW fell far more than the Australian average, dropping 11.93% for the month. The decline in job prospects worsened in the two resource rich states, reflecting the fall in global commodity prices. WA suffered an 8.67% decline while QLD job ads fell 8.63% in November. The one bright spot for the QLD state was that Hospitality and Tourism jobs rose 0.18%. "Perhaps it’s a Schoolies effect. As long as they’re eating drinking and spending their parents’ money there may be hope," said Robert Olivier. Graduates have also taken a hit this month, with online opportunities falling by 20.2%. "November is when smaller employers come onto the market and the larger firms ‘top up’ the numbers after the first round of offers. It‘s bleak for uni students who didn’t plan ahead," Robert Olivier says. "Competition for entry level jobs next year will be fierce, especially when you add in the late applications from this year’s graduates." There’s a lot of stress in the workplace. People are preoccupied with fear they’ll lose their jobs. "We’re hearing reports of changes in managerial attitudes with more pressure and more micromanagement. People are being set very high targets, in one case we saw KPIs quadrupled," says Robert Olivier. "Some people are responding by keeping their heads down. I’ve seen others who are willing to work for less money so long as there’s less pressure." People who are ‘stepping out’ of the workforce and can afford to take time out should develop new skills. "Maybe, if it’s appropriate, they could consider environmental studies, as a way of re-positioning for the next ten years." Robert Olivier is a Director of Olivier Group. The Olivier Job Index surveyed 317,381 Positions Vacant ads on commercial job sites in November and analysed them by state and industry sector. Robert Olivier is available for interview, and the microeconomic data including graphs of the industry sectors surveyed in the Olivier Job Index will be available on Monday December 8 on www.olivier.com.au Unless otherwise noted, all OJI figures quoted are seasonally adjusted, based on ABS advice. Released by Corporate Communications and Counsel. www.corpcoms.com Contact Bob Hughes 0407 901 587 or Katherine Scott 0415 764 159. Olivier Group, Level 9, 28 Margaret St, Sydney 2000. 9262 5344 Historical Releases: October 2008 Release September 2008 Release August 2008 Release July 2008 Release June 2008 Release May 2008 Release April 2008 Release March 2008 Release February 2008 Release January 2008 Release December 2007 Release November 2007 Release October 2007 Release September 2007 Release August 2007 Release July 2007 Release June 2007 Release April 2007 Release March 2007 Release February 2007 Release January 2007 Release December 2006 Release November 2006 Release October 2006 Release September 2006 Release August 2006 Release |