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The Olivier Internet Job Index provides a timely and fascinating monthly snapshot of the real economy. The research into what jobs are advertised on the net shows where the economy is strongest, by sector and state. An increasing number of commentators and economists are giving weight to internet stats and abandoning the newspaper ads as an employment indicator. John Edwards is quoted in this Shortlist article for example. The very detailed full analysis is to be found on the Olivier site, along with archived material. We will carry each month's release here, too. Rate Rise Fails to Dampen Job Demand Sydney, Sunday December 3, 2006. The most recent interest rate rise failed to subdue the Australian job market in November, new data from the Olivier Internet Job Index shows. The leading employment indicator recorded a 1.58% increase. There were 260,171 jobs ads counted on the major job boards, a new record and it is the 11th monthly increase in the seasonally adjusted index. "The jobs market usually takes a breath after an interest rate rise, but business had already taken the rise into account," says Robert Olivier. While this month fell compared to last month's heady 7.52% burst in ads, it shows the market building rather than correcting. "Things have toned down this month as the market slows towards the end of the year. But on our count the raw numbers are up, as is the seasonally adjusted count," Robert Olivier says. The one thing you wouldn't want to be in this tight labour market is a lawyer. In 12 months legal sector job ads have grown a measly 3.08% compared to the national average of 41.57%. Last month they dropped 5.22% nationally. In the ACT legal job ads have plummeted a massive 48.19% in 12 months. They're also down in Tasmania (-16.86%) Queensland (-12.16%) and NSW (0.24%). Legal graduates are having a hard time too – with job ads down 37.6% over the past year, compared to almost 33% increase for all graduate jobs in the Olivier Graduate Recruitment Index. "If you don't get an internship you're unlikely to pick up a job with one of the bigger law firms on graduation. Even if you do become an intern it's no guarantee you'll get a job." Robert Olivier says. "But there are plenty of opportunities for bright young law graduates in other areas, especially if they're numerate and willing to pick up other skills." The other traditionally big employing profession, Accounting, is also doing badly. It's risen just 13.34% this year, and is the second worst performer across the board. IT and Telecommunications market is still sparking - growing 4.15% this month, and up 51.09% in the year. The potential for the tight labour market to push inflation has been much in the news recently, and Olivier has warned of the forces pushing salary rises. The combination of a broad based skills shortage and a strong economy is yet to play out as wages driven inflation, according to the RBA. It may be that people are winning the significant rises in salaries when they swap jobs, with many workers not willing to broach their existing bosses for big raises. ”If you change jobs you may get a 10 - 20% increase in salary, if you stay you might only get a 4% raise,” Robert Olivier says. The $27 a week increase for minimum wage earners recently granted by the Fair Pay Commission was a market driven rise. Almost every other pay rise for an existing employee is a separate negotiation at the moment. Without centralised pay negotiations the bargaining power is often in favour of the employer. "In our recruitment consultancy we're seeing candidates who are successful people in a major city; not every worker in Australia has the capacity to negotiate as strongly as they do. People in the bush may not have the negotiating power of those in the city, and generally West Australia will be stronger than the south east," says Robert Olivier. For people going into performance reviews and asking pay rises at this time of year, Robert Olivier has some tips. "They would want parity with the CPI, then they'd take into account market conditions - which are largely in their favour, and then their personal performance would come into calculations," he says. "If you're not in line for a bonus or pay review in December then why wait until January to job hunt? In December job ads go down, but response levels often go down further, so smart candidates are going to the market now rather than following the crowd in January and February. There are a lot of employers who are anxious to fill outstanding roles by December 22." Robert Olivier is a Director of Olivier Group. The Olivier Internet Job Index surveyed 260,171 Positions Vacant ads on commercial job sites in November and analysed them by state and industry sector. Robert Olivier is available for interview, and the microeconomic data including graphs of the industry sectors surveyed in the Olivier Internet Job Index will be available on Monday December 4 on www.olivier.com.au Unless otherwise noted, all IJI figures quoted are seasonally adjusted, based on ABS advice. Released by Corporate Communications and Counsel. www.corpcoms.com Contact Bob Hughes 0407 901 587 or Katherine Scott 0415 764 159. Olivier Group, Level 9, 28 Margaret St, Sydney 2000. 9262 5344 Historical Releases: November 2006 Release October 2006 Release September 2006 Release August 2006 Release |