WE HELP YOU LOOK AND SOUND BETTER
Home
Who We Are
What We Do
What People Say
In the News
Recent Releases
Olivier
Inspiritive
Podcasts
Corporate Podcasts
Podcast Classes
NetCastNow & NetCastFast!
Images & Branding
Corporate pages
Student pages
ZENLP
Contact Us
|
The Olivier Job Index provides a timely and fascinating monthly snapshot of the real economy. The research into what jobs are advertised on the net shows where the economy is strongest, by sector and state. An increasing number of commentators and economists rely on the Olivier Job Index as an indicator of where the economy is going. The RBA regularly uses Olivier's research, for example. Internet Job Ads have replaced Newspaper Ads as a measure of the real economy. John Edwards is quoted in this Shortlist article for example. The very detailed analysis for major industry sectors is to be found on the Olivier site, along with archived material. Robert Olivier is frequently interviewed by the media. Here he is on Sky News. Job Ads Start Strong, but What's Ahead? Sydney, Sunday February 10, 2008. The Olivier Job Index rose just 1.54% (seasonally adjusted) in January after December's historically strong increase of 9%. "We expected a correction, "says Robert Olivier "as the market took its traditional summer break during January. But we were back to pre-Christmas levels by week 5 of January," he says. Olivier reviews the data at this time of the year cautiously because of the very large seasonal adjustment factors. However our analysis shows that, despite the stock market plunge, employers came back from their summer break avidly seeking workers. More talk of rising interest rates, the international credit squeeze and a possible global downturn will challenge business confidence in the jobs economy this year. Previously we've noted that interest rate rises have meant that job ad numbers have paused briefly then taken off again. Will this happen after this week's rate rise? In its rationale for the rise the Reserve Bank specifically mentioned that "reports of high capacity usage and shortages of suitable labour persist" . If the RBA is to successfully challenge inflation it will need to slow the economy and that may mean a fall in employment. The Olivier Job Index will be a key indicator of any changes in demand. "Our data has led us to warn of wages driven inflation for quite some time. With full employment, rising interest rates are also pushing up salary demands," says Robert Olivier. "The rise in people's mortgages means that recruiters are seeing people who are job hunting to reach the salary targets they need." Higher mortgage repayments also mean that previously full time child carers may now be forced to return to the workforce. The fall in value in some superannuation funds may cause some people to reconsider imminent retirement. Both these trends will help raise the participation rate, or, in the absence of rising demand for workers, may help push unemployment up. NSW fell backwards in job ads during January - dropping 0.53%, compared to Victoria's growth of 6.12%. Over the past 12 months NSW has grown 34.20% compared to Victoria's 49.62%, and national growth of 51.05% South Australia has performed exceptionally well over the past year, with growth of 65.5% ranking second only to Queensland's 73.6%. SA experienced growth of over 100% in Trades and Services and Building and Construction. Even with Mitsubishi's closing, South Australia blue collar workers may have many other options open to them. In the ACT we've seen an 8.84% fall in IT&T jobs over the past 12 months, bringing the territory's growth over 12 months down to 21.1% The banking and finance sector has fallen to the lowest growing sector in the past 12 months, rising just 26.22% in the year, and dropping 1.45% in January. Building and construction jobs which have also been strong over the year (up 76.54%) fell in January by 1.30%. Employers perhaps anticipated the February rate rise, or are experiencing a knock-on effect on mortgages from the global credit squeeze. Olivier faces one of its most exotic challenges this month as it searches for auditors who'd like to work in Kazakhstan, where the income tax rate starts at 10% for expatriots then goes down to 5% in a regressive scale. Robert Olivier is a Director of Olivier Group. The Olivier Job Index surveyed 305,014 Positions Vacant ads on commercial job sites in January and analysed them by state and industry sector. Robert Olivier is available for interview, and the microeconomic data including graphs of the industry sectors surveyed in the Olivier Job Index will be available on Monday February 11 on www.olivier.com.au Unless otherwise noted, all IJI figures quoted are seasonally adjusted, based on ABS advice. Released by Corporate Communications and Counsel. www.corpcoms.com Contact Bob Hughes 0407 901 587 or Katherine Scott 0415 764 159. Olivier Group, Level 9, 28 Margaret St, Sydney 2000. 9262 5344 Historical Releases: January 2008 Release December 2007 Release November 2007 Release October 2007 Release September 2007 Release August 2007 Release July 2007 Release June 2007 Release April 2007 Release March 2007 Release February 2007 Release January 2007 Release December 2006 Release November 2006 Release October 2006 Release September 2006 Release August 2006 Release |