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The Olivier Internet Job Index provides a timely and fascinating monthly snapshot of the real economy. The research into what jobs are advertised on the net shows where the economy is strongest, by sector and state. An increasing number of commentators and economists are giving weight to internet stats and abandoning the newspaper ads as an employment indicator. John Edwards is quoted in this Shortlist article for example. The very detailed full analysis is to be found on the Olivier site, along with archived material. We will carry each month's release here, too. Subdued Growth in January Sydney, Sunday February 4, 2007. The Olivier Internet Job Index rose 1.23% in January. “This was a subdued result,” says Robert Olivier, “but despite the seasonal plunge in the raw job ad numbers on the net, it is positive. “When we normalize the figures to take past years into account, we’re still in record territory. The trend estimates as calculated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics show a continuing strong market, albeit at not quite the same pace as in 2006.” The IT&T sector has eclipsed Sales and Marketing for the first time since the heady days of the tech boom of 2000. Tech job ads are now second only to Trades and Services. Reinforcing the trend in January Multimedia Internet & Graphics jobs had the most growth of any sector again – rising 15.13% “Falling job ads in Sales and Marketing in January was a national trend,” Robert Olivier says. “It’s not because of specific factors like the suggestion that NSW is in the economic doldrums or because of the fires in Victoria. It’s a general Australia wide softening in retail job ads.” The change may partly be a consequence of the migration of jobs from retail to IT&T as more Australians shop on line. “In the same way that job ads went to the net, so has shopping. It started with books from Amazon, then people bought travel on line, and now they’re doing their grocery shopping or ordering a pizza or taxi from their computers,” Robert Olivier says. “Five million Australians now registered on Ebay, and retailers in every sector are offering web based buying options.” The finance sectors – Banking, Financial Services and Insurance & Superannuation all continue to be strong. “The stock market is at record levels, especially with the private equity activity, and activity around Super will explode in the next 6 months,” Robert Olivier explained. “It’s coming up to bonus time in that sector, so the activity levels will increase there, after bonuses are paid.” The Arts and Entertainment sector has had outstanding growth over the past year – up 120.81% reflecting the rise in consumer discretionary spending. While the CPI for the December quarter fell (based on falls in oil and fruit), the continuing strength of the Olivier data continues to suggest that wage driven inflation could still be a concern. This is borne out through the recent NAB survey which showed wage inflation running at 5% annually. “We’ve been warning of this for some time,” says Robert Olivier, “based on the Olivier Internet Job Survey results and what we know through our recruitment practice. When salaries go up, there is a flow on effect through the whole economy.” One solution may be to recruit workers overseas as BHP is proposing for its Pilbara Iron ore operation. “Their suggestion that they employ 200 overseas workers may be controversial, but it is simply a practical response to the tight labour market,” says Robert Olivier. “We counted 3934 job ads in the Engineering and Mining sector last month in WA alone, so 200 workers is a drop in the ocean”. Rio Tinto in announcing a record profit this week also cited skills shortages as a concern. There were 40,000 section 457 temporary work visas granted by the federal government last year to help relieve Australia’s skills shortage. “Over the years it’s become easier to hire people from overseas. Once you had to prove as shortage existed, now the barriers to entry have been lowered.” Robert Olivier is a Director of Olivier Group. The Olivier Internet Job Index surveyed 201,932 Positions Vacant ads on commercial job sites in January and analysed them by state and industry sector. Robert Olivier is available for interview, and the microeconomic data including graphs of the industry sectors surveyed in the Olivier Internet Job Index will be available on Monday February 5 on www.olivier.com.au Unless otherwise noted, all IJI figures quoted are seasonally adjusted, based on ABS advice. Released by Corporate Communications and Counsel. www.corpcoms.com Contact Bob Hughes 0407 901 587 or Katherine Scott 0415 764 159. Olivier Group, Level 9, 28 Margaret St, Sydney 2000. 9262 5344 Historical Releases: January 2007 Release December 2006 Release November 2006 Release October 2006 Release September 2006 Release August 2006 Release |