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The Olivier Job Index provides a timely and fascinating monthly snapshot of the real economy. The research into what jobs are advertised on the net shows where the economy is strongest, by sector and state. An increasing number of commentators and economists rely on the Olivier Job Index as an indicator of where the economy is going. The RBA regularly uses Olivier's research, for example. Internet Job Ads have replaced Newspaper Ads as a measure of the real economy. John Edwards is quoted in this Shortlist article for example. The very detailed analysis for major industry sectors is to be found on the Olivier site, along with archived material. Robert Olivier is frequently interviewed by the media. Here he is on Sky News. Job Ads Trend Down Sydney, Sunday July 6, 2008. The Olivier Job Index fell 3.58% (seasonally adjusted) in June, with fewer jobs advertised in 14 of the 16 sectors surveyed. The Index is now trending down, for the first time since September 2002. Two of the surveyed sectors had less job ads than they did 12 months ago. Financial Services and Banking has 9.3% fewer job ads than in June 2007, and IT&T has fallen 1.3%. The biggest fall in the past month was in Transport, which dropped 8.8%, as it was hit by rapidly rising fuel prices. Hospitality Tourism and Travel fell 4.9% as the high Australian dollar continued to have an impact. Continuing economic uncertainty has eaten away at employer confidence and all states declined in employment opportunities, except resource rich WA (up 1.83%). Job ads in NSW fell 5.80%, and in Victoria they were down 4.81%. "After a 5.82% slide in the last 6 months, the trend line has tilted down now, for the first time in six years. The question is: when will this flow through to be a trend in the official unemployment rate. That will be the real tipping point for confidence in the economy," Robert Olivier, a Director of the Olivier Group, says. Despite a fall in building approvals in May, Building and Construction jobs only fell 1.4% in the month, and still show significant growth (36.6%) in the past 12 months. "Approvals are a lead indicator for construction, and work continues on infrastructure and commercial buildings, keeping job numbers up," Robert Olivier says. Advertising and Media recorded the highest gain in June, with 2.1% more job ads, possibly because of growth in online media. IT&T recorded a fall of 8.8% in June. This may be an end of the financial year effect, however graduate jobs in IT fell 9% in the month, indicating a longer term trend. Software development, the biggest market segment, fell 6.8% in the month. Internet, Graphics and Media were the only positive segment, up 1.6%. "Across the board, job ads fell in the second week of the month, and stayed down," Robert Olivier explained. "Job seekers are consumers too, so they’re bunkering down. As they’re spending more on petrol, and mortgage payments or rent, they are cutting back other spending. They’re not in expansionary mode, and may prefer job security to taking a chance on getting a better paying position," says Robert Olivier. "The good news is that while job ads have declined, we’re not seeing employers retrenching people in numbers, yet. "If employers are hiring now, they’re taking longer over the process, checking all the boxes," Robert Olivier says, "and that may be frustrating to job seekers." Olivier Job Index - Financial Year 2007 - 2008 Winners Engineering 45.3% Trades and Services 44.9% Building and Construction 36.6% Education 29.4% Healthcare 20.3% Losers Financial Services - 9.3% IT&T -1.3% Accounting 3.0% Administration 5.7% Transport 8.1% Robert Olivier is a Director of Olivier Group. The Olivier Job Index surveyed 388,460 Positions Vacant ads on commercial job sites in June and analysed them by state and industry sector. Robert Olivier is available for interview, and the microeconomic data including graphs of the industry sectors surveyed in the Olivier Job Index will be available on Monday July 7 on www.olivier.com.au Unless otherwise noted, all IJI figures quoted are seasonally adjusted, based on ABS advice. Released by Corporate Communications and Counsel. www.corpcoms.com Contact Bob Hughes 0407 901 587 or Katherine Scott 0415 764 159. Olivier Group, Level 9, 28 Margaret St, Sydney 2000. 9262 5344 Historical Releases: May 2008 Release April 2008 Release March 2008 Release February 2008 Release January 2008 Release December 2007 Release November 2007 Release October 2007 Release September 2007 Release August 2007 Release July 2007 Release June 2007 Release April 2007 Release March 2007 Release February 2007 Release January 2007 Release December 2006 Release November 2006 Release October 2006 Release September 2006 Release August 2006 Release |