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The Olivier Job Index provides a timely and fascinating monthly snapshot of the real economy. The research into what jobs are advertised on the net shows where the economy is strongest, by sector and state. An increasing number of commentators and economists rely on the Olivier Job Index as an indicator of where the economy is going. The RBA regularly uses Olivier's research, for example. Internet Job Ads have replaced Newspaper Ads as a measure of the real economy. John Edwards is quoted in this Shortlist article for example. The very detailed analysis for major industry sectors is to be found on the Olivier site, along with archived material. Robert Olivier is frequently interviewed by the media. Here he is on Sky News. Job Ads Plummet Sydney, Sunday March 9, 2008.. The Olivier Job Index has fallen for the first time in three years, after job growth stuttered in mid February. Job ads last month fell by 5.90% (seasonally adjusted) – the first fall since January 2005. This follows the fall in GDP growth in the December quarter. "This may be the tipping point into negative territory, and it could get worse as a result of last week's interest rate rise,"says Robert Olivier. "But it is still a very strong employment market". February is usually the month the jobs market bounces back after the end of year lull. February has been a bellwether – last year it was up 4.39% heralding the very strong year which followed. However, this February hasn't picked up over January as much as last year, or previous years. "Business confidence has been shaken by many economic factors, and hiring depends on confidence. Employers may be adopting a wait and see attitude. There has been a lot of negative economic noise around," Robert says. "Other economists have noted there's an over reaction, given good business conditions, so the jobs market may not continue to deteriorate as we fear." The Olivier Job Index is regarded as a lead economic indicator, but Robert Olivier doesn't expect to see the OJI data translate into a lower employment rate yet. "We'd need to see a trend over a couple of months showing softening conditions before we'd call the end of the jobs boom," Robert Olivier says. "We've tracked the effect of the last 10 interest rate rises – in each case the jobs market paused then resumed growth. Will that be the case now? Can the RBA keep putting up interest rates without hitting job vacancies? Time will tell." Inevitably any reduction in the demand for labour will ease pressure on wage rises. Demand has exceeded supply for so long, a softening may be good for the recruitment industry as the market becomes more balanced. And it would be a welcome respite for employers who've done it tough for some time. The supply side of the jobs market had been tightening with the changes to the 457 migrant worker visas brought in by the previous government. While employers and the recruiters are seeking a relaxation of regulations, this will be a difficult area for the Federal government if employment eases. The Financial Services and Banking sector continues to flounder, dropping 5.12% in February, bringing its growth to just 13.7% in 12 months and making it the weakest sector of the economy, according to the Olivier Job Index. Hospitality and Tourism sector job vacancies also fell foul of the exchange rate, with job ads falling 7.53% nationally, and 8% in Queensland, indicating that even in the boom states local tourism hasn't made up for the fall in inbound. The music stopped for NSW some time ago with the largest state recording the second lowest growth rate in job ads in the country, over the past year. NSW, with annual growth of 21.08% is way behind the national average of 36% and ahead of only the ACT (9.61%). This confirms the ABS report on NSW's lagging performance last week. One bright area is graduate job ads which are up 40% in the past 12 months, with Engineering and Mining now the biggest sector. The Education and Government sectors have all doubled compared to this time last year. Robert Olivier is a Director of Olivier Group. The Olivier Job Index surveyed 403,926 Positions Vacant ads on commercial job sites in February and analysed them by state and industry sector. Robert Olivier is available for interview, and the microeconomic data including graphs of the industry sectors surveyed in the Olivier Job Index will be available on Monday March 10 on www.olivier.com.au Unless otherwise noted, all IJI figures quoted are seasonally adjusted, based on ABS advice. Released by Corporate Communications and Counsel. www.corpcoms.com Contact Bob Hughes 0407 901 587 or Katherine Scott 0415 764 159. Olivier Group, Level 9, 28 Margaret St, Sydney 2000. 9262 5344 Historical Releases: February 2008 Release January 2008 Release December 2007 Release November 2007 Release October 2007 Release September 2007 Release August 2007 Release July 2007 Release June 2007 Release April 2007 Release March 2007 Release February 2007 Release January 2007 Release December 2006 Release November 2006 Release October 2006 Release September 2006 Release August 2006 Release |