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The Olivier Internet Job Index provides a timely and fascinating monthly snapshot of the real economy. The research into what jobs are advertised on the net shows where the economy is strongest, by sector and state. An increasing number of commentators and economists are giving weight to internet stats and abandoning the newspaper ads as an employment indicator. John Edwards is quoted in this Shortlist article for example. The very detailed full analysis is to be found on the Olivier site, along with archived material. Robert Olivier is frequently interviewed by the media. Here he is on Sky News. Jobs Steady Over Easter. Sydney Sunday May 6, 2006. The Olivier Internet Job Index steadied during April but still rose by 1.18%. The total number of job ads dropped slightly from the record high of 303,124 in March to 298,777. Seven out of the 21 industry sectors surveyed fell, after seasonal adjustment. “This is the expected effect of Easter, the school holidays and Anzac Day,” Robert Olivier explains. “Our detailed analysis shows that the job ad numbers dipped during the middle two weeks of the month.” April also saw another historic low in the official unemployment rate. “As the Olivier Internet Job Index graph has been going up and up, the ABS unemployment rate has been dropping.” Given the tight labour market, Australia’s recent low inflation rate and consequent interest rate stability is a welcome surprise. Olivier continues to see wages increasing beyond the CPI. “Our forthcoming Accounting Salary Survey shows that the 85% of employers expect to offer increases above the official inflation rate. “A third expect salaries will be up by at least 6%, and 6% of employers expect the salaries they pay their accountants will go up by 10%”, Robert Olivier says. “Only 15% of the employers we surveyed thought they’d be paying 3% or less. When people can get 10 – 20% more by changing jobs, not many employers are going to be offering a raise that just matches inflation.” We’re not alone in observing the tight labour market and the consequent growth in wages. The RBA’s quarterly statement suggested that there’s been growth in employment and real wages. “On our data, the pressure on wages will continue. An election year budget will only fuel the current generationally tight labour market,” Robert Olivier says. The high Australian dollar may be responsible for the 4.23% fall in Hospitality, Tourism and Travel job ads. “It’s cheaper for Australians to go overseas, and dearer for inbound tourists. Either way the local tourist industry loses,” Robert Olivier explains. After strong performances all year, IT&T fell 1.71% and the best performer over the past year, Multimedia Graphics and Internet, dropped by 5.58% in the month. Even so, Multimedia jobs have still doubled in the past 12 months rising 104.43%. “It will take more than a one month fall to reverse the positive sentiment in the IT sector.” Other sectors to fall include Human Resources (- 2.65%) Legal (- 2.48%), Accounting (- 2.35%), and Trades and Services (- 1.87%) Over all sectors nationally job ads on the internet have risen 38.96% in the past 12 months. While IR and employment conditions will be a central issue in this year’s federal election, Robert Olivier says the online revolution has meant more people are better informed about the prospects on offer, and the value of their work. “Online there’s much more information available than there was five years ago. The labour market is clearly in favour of the seller – the employee. Now employers want to be seen as a better employer, and they expect candidates will research them. Job seekers can find out more, faster, than ever before, and bad news travels fast on the net,” Robert Olivier says. Because of the strength of the job market most employers are at pains to keep their staff, but this political debate might be more acute when there are fewer jobs around. Robert Olivier is a Director of Olivier Group. The Olivier Internet Job Index surveyed 298,777 Positions Vacant ads on commercial job sites in April and analysed them by state and industry sector. Robert Olivier is available for interview, and the microeconomic data including graphs of the industry sectors surveyed in the Olivier Internet Job Index will be available on Monday May 7 on www.olivier.com.au Unless otherwise noted, all IJI figures quoted are seasonally adjusted, based on ABS advice. Released by Corporate Communications and Counsel. www.corpcoms.com Contact Bob Hughes 0407 901 587 or Katherine Scott 0415 764 159. Olivier Group, Level 9, 28 Margaret St, Sydney 2000. 9262 5344 Historical Releases: April 2007 Release March 2007 Release February 2007 Release January 2007 Release December 2006 Release November 2006 Release October 2006 Release September 2006 Release August 2006 Release |