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The Olivier Job Index provides a timely and fascinating monthly snapshot of the real economy. The research into what jobs are advertised on the net shows where the economy is strongest, by sector and state. An increasing number of commentators and economists rely on the Olivier Job Index as an indicator of where the economy is going. The RBA regularly uses Olivier's research, for example. Internet Job Ads have replaced Newspaper Ads as a measure of the real economy. John Edwards is quoted in this Shortlist article for example. The very detailed analysis for major industry sectors is to be found on the Olivier site, along with archived material. Robert Olivier is frequently interviewed by the media. Here he is on Sky News. Employers Hit Pause Button Sydney, Sunday May 4, 2008. Employers kept their fingers on the pause button for the second month in a row, according to the Olivier Job Index for April. The Olivier Job Index has plateaued, increasing a negligible 0.01% in April, after a rise of just 0.72% in March. Those stagnant figures were an improvement on February's job ad numbers which dropped 5.90%. “Clearly we aren't in the record breaking job market of 2007 any more,” says Robert Olivier, a Director of the Olivier Group. “But the good news is that the market hasn't deteriorated much further than February.” Some sectors showed improvement in April. Transport job ads were up 15.73%, Legal were up 6.52% and Education up 4.22%. However Accounting was down 5.15%, and Human Resources dropped 4.19%. The embattled Financial Services and Banking sector declined 2.55% last month, bringing it's 3 month fall to 11.04%, making it the worst performing sector in that time. “Some global financial institutions are offering existing employees in other countries jobs in Australia in order to keep them, and that's closing off options for local candidates,” says Robert Olivier. Altogether over the past 3 months the Olivier Job Index has fallen 5.22%. The interest rate rises and uncertainty about the US recession are having an effect on local business. “Recent business confidence surveys have consistently been showing lowered expectations, and that's being reflected in hesitancy about employing new staff,” says Robert Olivier. A key indicator is that graduate job ad numbers were down 6.1% in the month. Winner and Losers for the past three months: Winners Transport + 6.42% Engineering + 2.83% Building and Construction + 0.64% Losers Financial Services & Banking - 11.04% Sales & Marketing - 10.81% Advertising & Media - 10.9% With inflation the RBA's key issue driving interest rates, salary expectations may be softening. The Olivier Accounting Salary Survey also released this week showed that expectations of salary increases were slightly more modest than last year, with 10% thinking they'd get less than 3% this year. Average planned salary increases for accountants have fallen from 5.4% to 4.4%, barely above CPI. “How long before the softening of the job market means that people won't be as well off as they were before?” Robert Olivier asks. If people accept raises that are below CPI then spending must come down. That's something the RBA board should take into account when they meet this week.” One area where companies are cutting back is in IT&T which fell again last month by 1.92%, bringing its fall to 9.73% in 3 months. “We're hearing stories of contractors being pulled off jobs and projects being mothballed.” This is a time when companies will be looking closely as productivity. “If you're an employer where do you cut – at what level of management or staff/chiefs or indians?,” Robert Olivier asks. “Employers will be looking closely at how effective every employee is. It'll also be harder for stay at home parents and retirees to re-enter the work force.” Robert Olivier is a Director of Olivier Group. The Olivier Job Index surveyed 386,980 Positions Vacant ads on commercial job sites in April and analysed them by state and industry sector. Robert Olivier is available for interview, and the microeconomic data including graphs of the industry sectors surveyed in the Olivier Job Index will be available on Monday May 5 on www.olivier.com.au Unless otherwise noted, all IJI figures quoted are seasonally adjusted, based on ABS advice. Released by Corporate Communications and Counsel. www.corpcoms.com Contact Bob Hughes 0407 901 587 or Katherine Scott 0415 764 159. Olivier Group, Level 9, 28 Margaret St, Sydney 2000. 9262 5344 Historical Releases: April 2008 Release March 2008 Release February 2008 Release January 2008 Release December 2007 Release November 2007 Release October 2007 Release September 2007 Release August 2007 Release July 2007 Release June 2007 Release April 2007 Release March 2007 Release February 2007 Release January 2007 Release December 2006 Release November 2006 Release October 2006 Release September 2006 Release August 2006 Release |