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The Olivier Internet Job Index provides a timely and fascinating monthly snapshot of the real economy. The research into what jobs are advertised on the net shows where the economy is strongest, by sector and state. An increasing number of commentators and economists are giving weight to internet stats and abandoning the newspaper ads as an employment indicator. John Edwards is quoted in this Shortlist article for example. The very detailed full analysis is to be found on the Olivier site, along with archived material. We will carry each month's release here, too. Job Vacancies Catapult Sydney, Sunday November 5, 2006. The Olivier Internet Job Index catapulted 7.52% (seasonally adjusted) in October. This is the tenth successive increase in a row, and the biggest rise this year. Olivier counted a record 259,819 jobs advertised on line, on average each week, in Australia during the month. The Olivier Internet Job Index has risen 15.78% over the last six months, and 10.66% in the past three months. The two biggest states drove the growth, with NSW and Victoria showing a resurgence of in job ads, as they head for elections. “This is remarkable growth, as the graph shows,” Robert Olivier, of Olivier Group says. “And on past evidence job ads will bounce back quickly after an interest rate rise.” As the price of oil has dropped, jobs in the Transport sector have boomed spectacularly. There were 19.77% more Transport jobs on line last month than the previous month. In comparison Transport positions vacant dropped 5.46% in August and 1.11% in September, seasonally adjusted. The job movement reflects the corresponding 10% drop in petrol prices in September. The Olivier Internet Job Index has consistently reflected micro-economic changes like this over its six year history. The biggest growth in the past month was in Multimedia, Internet and Graphics jobs - demand grew 20.08%. That trendy sector has also seen the biggest growth over the past year – up 127.32%. ITandT jobs also grew 7.21% in October, with strong growth in Queensland. Other significant growth in the month included Engineering and Mining, which grew 14.98%, and Building and Construction which grew 11.67% after building approvals rose 6.1% in September 06 The interest rate rise that's widely anticipated for this week will have been factored in by business. “In our view,” says Robert Olivier, of the Olivier Group,”the employment market is being sustained by global and demographic forces, not local business and economic factors.” While other economic indicators like retail sales and housing demand have been moderate demand for workers has been consistently high this year. Access Economics explained recently that the cost of labour in Australia is relatively cheap compared to the profitability generated by each worker. The Olivier Internet Job Index history suggests that interest rate rises like the one widely predicted for this week, haven't had a major effect on employment demand. “We've been seeing a 'bounce back' effect after interest rate rises over the six years that we've been collecting data. Each time the RBA increases rates, job ads falter, but quickly rebound.” Even with the two interest rate rises in 2003, the economy took the hit, then the jobs market bounced back. One increase is unlikely to be enough to pull this growth back although it will add fuel to wage demands. “Workers asking for a raise may look for some more money to compensate for the interest rate rise,” Robert Olivier says. “We'd expect to see the usual seasonal Christmas and New Year decline in the employment market.” But the inherent strength of the employment market looks set to continue. “This year, more than ever, people will be contemplating job changes over the holidays.” Robert Olivier is a Director of Olivier Group. The Olivier Internet Job Index surveyed 259,819 Positions Vacant ads on commercial job sites in October and analysed them by state and industry sector. Robert Olivier is available for interview, and the microeconomic data including graphs of the industry sectors surveyed in the Olivier Internet Job Index will be available on Monday November 6 on www.olivier.com.au Unless otherwise noted, all IJI figures quoted are seasonally adjusted, based on ABS advice. Released by Corporate Communications and Counsel. www.corpcoms.com Contact Bob Hughes 0407 901 587 or Katherine Scott 0415 764 159. Olivier Group, Level 9, 28 Margaret St, Sydney 2000. 9262 5344 Radio cuts: Left click on the link to preview, right click on the link to download - files are high quality (192 kbps) mp3's suitable for broadcast. The online jobs market catapulted according to the Olivier Internet Job Index, which recorded another record this month. Robert Olivier explains the new results... Another record month. Outcue: "a record 260,000 jobs on line" (11 seconds) Australia's transport sector which felt the pain of the oil price rise has bounced back in October, as Robert Olivier of the Olivier Internet Job Index explains. Transport Sector bounces back. Outcue: "that trend has reversed." (10.5 seconds) With an interest rate rise likely this week, what's likely to happen to the job market? Robert Olivier from the Olivier Internet Job Index explains..... Interest rate rise and jobs. Outcue: "...pretty quickly afterwards"(18 seconds) An interest rate rise in the current tight jobs market may be counter productive when it comes to wage driven inflation, says the Olivier Internet Job Index's Robert Olivier: Wage rises. Outcue: "...to allow for that increase" (10 seconds) Historical Releases: October 2006 Release September 2006 Release August 2006 Release |