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The Olivier Job Index provides a timely and fascinating monthly snapshot of the real economy. The research into what jobs are advertised on the net shows where the economy is strongest, by sector and state. An increasing number of commentators and economists rely on the Olivier Job Index as an indicator of where the economy is going. The RBA regularly uses Olivier's research, for example. Internet Job Ads have replaced Newspaper Ads as a measure of the real economy. John Edwards is quoted in this Shortlist article for example. The very detailed analysis for major industry sectors is to be found on the Olivier site, along with archived material. Robert Olivier is frequently interviewed by the media. Here he is on Sky News. Job Ads Fall Faster. Sydney, Sunday November 2, 2008. The Olivier Job Index fell 4.42% in October, with Australian job ads counted per week declining by 20,107 over the month. The Index is down 6.16% on this time last year - the first fall in annual growth since 2003. "This fall is across almost every industry, and the rate of decline is accelerating," says Robert Olivier, a Director of Olivier Group. "This will inevitably flow through to the official unemployment rate. On our calculations a fall of this size would translate into just 0.1% - 0.2% less employment as the ABS measures it." New South Wales had a shocking month, economically as well as politically, with job ads falling 8.04%. "This was the worst figure of all the states, and dragged the national total down," Mr Olivier says. Sydney's been hit by the drop in Financial Services jobs, while the State government deficit means spending cut backs over the medium term. In comparison vacancies in Victoria fell 4.9%. Mid October was the tipping point, with job ads falling more dramatically after the second week. "The relentless volatility and stock market falls have hit business confidence," says Robert Olivier. In the last month, 15 out of 16 industry sectors have fallen, nationally. Only Engineering, up 4.69% in the month, buoyed by the resources boom, has risen. Job opportunities for graduates have fallen 7.7% in the past month, and 29% in the past year. Hardest hit are entry level jobs in Accounting, Banking, Management and IT. "The outlook is bleak for young Australians who don’t have jobs. If uni leavers don’t have a job yet, they’ll find it extremely tough to find one." Casual and Temporary jobs are hurting worst, dropping 19.2% in the year, and 6.9% last month. Employers are favoring their permanents – although those jobs still dropped by 4.6% in the month, and 6.1% in the last year. As foreshadowed two months ago, employment in the resource rich states of Queensland and Western Australia is slowing. Overall job ads in Queensland fell 2.88% over the past year, despite an increase of 38.40% in Engineering jobs. Hospitality jobs in the Sunshine State have fallen 28.71% in 12 months. "With the Australian dollar falling you’d expect more Australians to holiday locally, and more overseas visitors to arrive. But given the financial uncertainty many people may simply be staying at home." WA is still the bright spot in the Australian job market, with 12 month growth of 13.22%. "With job ads falling 0.77% last month, its reputation as a sanctuary from the global economic woes may be about to change," Robert Olivier says. While Engineering job ads are up just 0.89%, Trades and Services jobs fell 12.44% and Transport jobs are down 14.35%. Engineering still ranks as a top job on the Migration Skilled Occupation List, reflecting a continuing skills shortage. As times toughen its important to continue to attract appropriate migrants, Robert Olivier says. "As tempting as it might be to criticize migrants taking local jobs, we need the skills we don’t have to survive this recession." But as the government looks at spending its way out of this downturn they may be better off considering changes to payroll taxes, rather than infrastructure projects. "Infrastructure is capital rather than labour intensive, and may mostly benefit occupations where there are existing skill shortages. Instead the Federal government could consider working with the states,to abolish payroll tax, which although politically difficult to do, would help employment across the board." As an experienced recruiter, Robert Olivier has some advice for people who may feel their jobs are at risk. "When you think there’s a chance you’ll be retrenched there’s a natural inclination to wait around for a payout. You’re better off looking for a job while you're employed, than when you’ve lost your job," Robert Olivier warns. "That way you're controlling your own destiny." Robert Olivier is a Director of Olivier Group. The Olivier Job Index surveyed 365,381 Positions Vacant ads on commercial job sites in October and analysed them by state and industry sector. Robert Olivier is available for interview, and the microeconomic data including graphs of the industry sectors surveyed in the Olivier Job Index will be available on Monday November 3 on www.olivier.com.au Unless otherwise noted, all OJI figures quoted are seasonally adjusted, based on ABS advice. Released by Corporate Communications and Counsel. www.corpcoms.com Contact Bob Hughes 0407 901 587 or Katherine Scott 0415 764 159. Olivier Group, Level 9, 28 Margaret St, Sydney 2000. 9262 5344 Historical Releases: September 2008 Release August 2008 Release July 2008 Release June 2008 Release May 2008 Release April 2008 Release March 2008 Release February 2008 Release January 2008 Release December 2007 Release November 2007 Release October 2007 Release September 2007 Release August 2007 Release July 2007 Release June 2007 Release April 2007 Release March 2007 Release February 2007 Release January 2007 Release December 2006 Release November 2006 Release October 2006 Release September 2006 Release August 2006 Release |