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The Olivier Job Index provides a timely and fascinating monthly snapshot of the real economy. The research into what jobs are advertised on the net shows where the economy is strongest, by sector and state. An increasing number of commentators and economists rely on the Olivier Job Index as an indicator of where the economy is going. The RBA regularly uses Olivier's research, for example. Internet Job Ads have replaced Newspaper Ads as a measure of the real economy. John Edwards is quoted in this Shortlist article for example. The very detailed analysis for major industry sectors is to be found on the Olivier site, along with archived material. Robert Olivier is frequently interviewed by the media. Here he is on Sky News. Jobs: a Buyers Market. Sydney, Sunday October 5, 2008. The Olivier Job Index fell 1.17% in September, bringing growth over the last twelve months down to 2.03%, a 5 year low. This is the fourth consecutive month of decline. In stark contrast, a year ago job ads had grown more than 50% in the previous 12 months. "In a year it’s gone from a sellers market to a buyers market," says Robert Olivier. "It’s been a slow painful decline – a death by a thousand cuts." The September interest rate cut didn’t seem to have an effect on employers. It’s unlikely that another cut would reignite confidence, given the threats to the global economy. Olivier's analysis shows that the week by week job ad numbers were falling even before last week’s financial turmoil. Still powered by the mining boom, the Engineering sector was the top performer this month (up 4.09%) and over the whole year (gaining 36.08%). In the resource rich states, WA job ads grew 1.75% in September, although QLD fell 4.96%. Building and Construction job ads were down 1.99%, reflecting a decline in housing approvals. IT&T was down 3.27% in the month, and 19.06% over the past year. "A year ago it was the 2nd biggest sector, now it’s down to 5th," says Robert Olivier. Employers may be gambling on how long the slowdown will last. Organisations cut back on temps and contractors first. That sector fell 4.7% in September, and 14.3% over 12 months. Graduate jobs are also at risk with advertisements down 2.2% in the month and 16.03% in the year. "In the last 12 months graduate job advertisements have dropped in all sectors, except Education," Robert Olivier says. So far, permanent employees jobs have proved to be most secure. "There’s no point letting people go if you’re going to have to rehire in 12 months or less. By the time you pay them out and then spend money on hiring, you’re better to keep them on. But if employers see the problems lasting longer then we’ll see a rise in the jobless rate." On the supply side many people are now realizing that the value of their super has fallen, and that they’ll have to work longer. "Some previously self funded retirees may need to find jobs," says Robert Olivier. "That may be hard for them." "It could also be an issue for younger workers, Gen Y and Gen X, who will find their career path blocked. They’ll also find they may be discriminated against for a history of frequent job changes." "When employers become more careful about whom they employ and supply exceeds demand, job tenure becomes a critical factor. In the 2001-2 downturn we saw employers penalizing the job hoppers." With the brakes on hiring, salary rises will also be muted. Many workers with mortgages will find interest rate cuts a welcome relief. Robert Olivier is a Director of Olivier Group. The Olivier Job Index surveyed 386,488 Positions Vacant ads on commercial job sites in September and analysed them by state and industry sector. Robert Olivier is available for interview, and the microeconomic data including graphs of the industry sectors surveyed in the Olivier Job Index will be available on Monday October 6 on www.olivier.com.au Unless otherwise noted, all IJI figures quoted are seasonally adjusted, based on ABS advice. Released by Corporate Communications and Counsel. www.corpcoms.com Contact Bob Hughes 0407 901 587 or Katherine Scott 0415 764 159. Olivier Group, Level 9, 28 Margaret St, Sydney 2000. 9262 5344 Historical Releases: August 2008 Release July 2008 Release June 2008 Release May 2008 Release April 2008 Release March 2008 Release February 2008 Release January 2008 Release December 2007 Release November 2007 Release October 2007 Release September 2007 Release August 2007 Release July 2007 Release June 2007 Release April 2007 Release March 2007 Release February 2007 Release January 2007 Release December 2006 Release November 2006 Release October 2006 Release September 2006 Release August 2006 Release |