The Olivier Group
The Olivier Internet Job Index provides a timely and fascinating monthly snapshot of the real economy.
The research into what jobs are advertised on the net shows where the economy is strongest, by sector and state.
The very detailed full analysis is to be found on the Olivier site, along with archived material. We will carry each month's release here, too.
Job Jitters
Sydney, Sunday September 4, 2005.
Sydney, Sunday November 6, 2005. Despite reaching another record high, the October Olivier Internet Job Index is sending mixed messages about the economy, based on a fall in NSW jobs during the month. The Index hit 195.44 in October with 182,457 jobs counted on average each week. That was a 1.41% increase in seasonally adjusted terms. In the past 12 months internet job ads have increased by 24.40%
For the first time since April the actual number of jobs advertised on the net has gone down, falling 3,258.
In raw figure terms in 15 sectors (out of 21) there were less jobs advertised last month than the month before. Accounting, Administration, and IT are all weak. Seasonally adjusted, 7 sectors have fallen in October. Education and Hospitality jobs were both up strongly in raw and seasonally adjusted terms.
“It's still a phenomenal job market with a count of 182,457 jobs on the boards, but it could be a market on the turn. We saw the first signs last month, but this is more pronounced,” says Robert Olivier, a Director of the Olivier Group. ..../2
“Simply put there are less ads this month than last, and so it's just a little harder to find a job,” he says.
“It hasn't fallen steeply, but there may be a bit of angst setting in.
“The oil price rises have had a knock-on effect on consumer confidence but October is a vulnerable period in the annual job cycle,” says Robert Olivier.
“Wise contractors would be wanting to roll their assignments over to January or February. If the market's slow in October it won't pick up in November or December”.
NSW, which has the greatest share of the national job market at 40.54%, was substantially responsible for the fall, with jobs in that state dropping by 5.2% in the month. All occupational sectors fell in NSW.
Accounting was the worst hit sector, falling 2.59% nationally (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and there were 10.0% fewer job advertisements counted in NSW in the month.
Trades & Services and Sales & Marketing job ads now dominate the Australian job market, with each having close to 14%. Accounting and IT&T are about equal second on 10%.
The Advertising & Media and Arts & Entertainment sectors although small also registered significant job ad losses (SA) during the month. “This could be a reflection on slightly tighter consumer expenditure and could be a worrying development for retailers before Christmas,” says Robert Olivier.
Robert Olivier is a Director of Olivier Group. The Olivier Internet Job Index surveyed 182,457 Positions Vacant ads on commercial job sites in October, and analysed them by state and industry sector. Robert Olivier is available for interview, and the microeconomic data including graphs of the industry sectors surveyed in the Olivier Internet Job Index will be available shortly at www.olivier.com.au Unless otherwise noted, all IJI figures quoted are seasonally adjusted, based on ABS advice.
Released by Corporate Communications and Counsel. www.corpcoms.com
Contact Bob Hughes 0407 901 587 or Katherine Scott 0415 764 159.
Olivier Group, Level 9, 28 Margaret St, Sydney 2000. 9262 5344
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