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The Olivier Job Index provides a timely and fascinating monthly snapshot of the real economy. The research into what jobs are advertised on the net shows where the economy is strongest, by sector and state. An increasing number of commentators and economists rely on the Olivier Job Index as an indicator of where the economy is going. The RBA regularly uses Olivier's research, for example. Internet Job Ads have replaced Newspaper Ads as a measure of the real economy. John Edwards is quoted in this Shortlist article for example. The very detailed analysis for major industry sectors is to be found on the Olivier site, along with archived material. Robert Olivier is frequently interviewed by the media. Here he is on Sky News. White Collar Jobs Slump as Times Toughen Sydney, Sunday September 7, 2008. In line with falling economic conditions, the Olivier Job Index has declined again in August, down 3.54% seasonally adjusted. 14 of the 16 industry sectors surveyed fell in the month, giving little consolation to workers who have been laid off. Job ads have gone backwards over 3 months and 6 months. The Olivier Job Index's 12 month growth of 6.3% is lowest rate of yearly growth in 8 years. NSW continues to be the laggard in terms of job vacancies - falling 6.43% in the month. Even the powerhouse states aren't doing so well, with QLD down 3.57% last month and demand for workers in WA falling 3.19% Hardest hit sector over 12 months continues to be the Financial Services and Banking sector which has lost 23.19%. IT&T is also suffering, dropping 14.81% in 12 months. The worst falls last month were in Human Resources, down 8.40%; Accounting down 8.24%; IT&T which dropped 8.28% and Financial Services and Banking, down 7.92%. "In the dual speed economy it's the white collar workers who have the brakes on," says Robert Olivier. Companies have cut back on graduate hiring too, with demand across the board down 11% over the past 12 months. Banking jobs for graduates have fallen 55% and Accounting jobs 45% in that time. "If you're leaving uni without a job wrapped up, you may be struggling to find a role," says Robert Olivier. The Reserve Bank's rate cut, passed on quickly by the banks, may help boost business sentiment. "We've observed the effects of 12 interest rate rises over the past seven years," says Robert Olivier, Director of the Olivier Group. "When the growth was on they didn't cause much of a pause. We saw an effect when there were two in a row. Now they're headed the other way, we'll be watching our data closely to see the effect of this interest rate drop. This sends a signal to business that the rises have stopped." The Olivier Job Index has measured a fall in demand, but the unemployment rate is not just about jobs flowing into the employment market 'pool'. Increasingly we're seeing companies pull the plug on existing workers. With Fairfax Media, Holden, IAG and metal producer Minara Resources joining Qantas, Starbucks, and Don Smallgoods in laying off workers, the market is tightening up. "Journalists who didn't expect to find themselves looking for a job will be disappointed by a market that's had a 6.77% fall in Advertising and Media jobs in the past month," says Robert Olivier. When will the market turn back up? The outlook for jobs growth in the short term is not good in the light of the Reserve Bank's predictions of a possible 5% unemployment rate. "There are good people on the market, but employers will be asking themselves whether they're confident to hire," Robert Olivier says. And the message about wage driven inflation will be getting through, too, he adds. "You may need a raise of 4.5% to match inflation, but you'll be lucky if you get it," Robert Olivier says The ABS reported last week that the amount of working days lost in the June quarter more than double the previous quarter, as industrial disputes worsen. "The danger is that this can only get worse, as employment conditions tighten, even under state and federal Labor governments," says Robert Olivier. A tough year: the Struggling Sectors over 12 months: Financial Services and Banking down 23.19% IT&T down 14.81% Admin and clerical fell 10.72% Accounting down 7.82% Advertising and Media down 1.00% Robert Olivier is a Director of Olivier Group. The Olivier Job Index surveyed 383,750 Positions Vacant ads on commercial job sites in August and analysed them by state and industry sector. Robert Olivier is available for interview, and the microeconomic data including graphs of the industry sectors surveyed in the Olivier Job Index will be available on Monday September 8 on www.olivier.com.au Unless otherwise noted, all IJI figures quoted are seasonally adjusted, based on ABS advice. Released by Corporate Communications and Counsel. www.corpcoms.com Contact Bob Hughes 0407 901 587 or Katherine Scott 0415 764 159. Olivier Group, Level 9, 28 Margaret St, Sydney 2000. 9262 5344 Historical Releases: July 2008 Release June 2008 Release May 2008 Release April 2008 Release March 2008 Release February 2008 Release January 2008 Release December 2007 Release November 2007 Release October 2007 Release September 2007 Release August 2007 Release July 2007 Release June 2007 Release April 2007 Release March 2007 Release February 2007 Release January 2007 Release December 2006 Release November 2006 Release October 2006 Release September 2006 Release August 2006 Release |